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Ecosystem model

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Ecosystem model

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A structural diagram of the open ocean plankton ecosystem model of Fasham, Ducklow & McKelvie (1990).

An ecosystem model is an abstract, usually mathematical, representation of an ecological system (ranging in scale from an individual population, to an ecological community, or even an entire biome), which is studied to better understand the real system.

Using data gathered from the field, ecological relationships—such as the relation of sunlight and water availability to photosynthetic rate, or that between predator and prey populations—are derived, and these are combined to form ecosystem models. These model systems are then studied in order to make predictions about the dynamics of the real system. Often, the study of inaccuracies in the model (when compared to empirical observations) will lead to the generation of hypotheses about possible ecological relations that are not yet known or well understood. Models enable researchers to simulate large-scale experiments that would be too costly or unethical to perform on a real ecosystem. They also enable the simulation of ecological processes over very long periods of time (i.e. simulating a process that takes centuries in reality, can be done in a matter of minutes in a computer model).

Ecosystem models have applications in a wide variety of disciplines, such as natural resource management,ecotoxicology and environmental health,agriculture, and wildlife conservation. Ecological modelling has even been applied to archaeology with varying degrees of success, for example, combining with archaeological models to explain the diversity and mobility of stone tools.

Types of models

There are two major types of ecological models, which are generally applied to different types of problems: (1) analytic models and (2) simulation / computational models. Analytic models are typically relatively simple (often linear) systems, that can be accurately described by a set of mathematical equations whose behavior is well-known. Simulation models on the other hand, use numerical techniques to solve problems for which analytic solutions are impractical or impossible. Simulation models tend to be more widely used, and are generally considered more ecologically realistic, while analytic models are valued for their mathematical elegance and explanatory power.Ecopath is a powerful software system which uses simulation and computational methods to model marine ecosystems. It is widely used by marine and fisheries scientists as a tool for modelling and visualising the complex relationships that exist in real world marine ecosystems.

Model design

Diagram of the Silver Springs model (Odum, 1971). Note the aggregation into functional groups such as "herbivores" or "decomposers".

The process of model design begins with a specification of the problem to be solved, and the objectives for the model.

Ecological systems are composed of an enormous number of biotic and abiotic factors that interact with each other in ways that are often unpredictable, or so complex as to be impossible to incorporate into a computable model. Because of this complexity, ecosystem models typically simplify the systems they are studying to a limited number of components that are well understood, and deemed relevant to the problem that the model is intended to solve.

The process of simplification typically reduces an ecosystem to a small number of state variables and mathematical functions that describe the nature of the relationships between them. The number of ecosystem components that are incorporated into the model is limited by aggregating similar processes and entities into functional groups that are treated as a unit.

After establishing the components to be modeled and the relationships between them, another important factor in ecosystem model structure is the representation of space used. Historically, models have often ignored the confounding issue of space. However, for many ecological problems spatial dynamics are an important part of the problem, with different spatial environments leading to very different outcomes. Spatially explicit models (also called "spatially distributed" or "landscape" models) attempt to incorporate a heterogeneous spatial environment into the model. A spatial model is one that has one or more state variables that are a function of space, or can be related to other spatial variables.

Validation

After construction, models are validated to ensure that the results are acceptably accurate or realistic. One method is to test the model with multiple sets of data that are independent of the actual system being studied. This is important since certain inputs can cause a faulty model to output correct results. Another method of validation is to compare the model's output with data collected from field observations. Researchers frequently specify beforehand how much of a disparity they are willing to accept between parameters output by a model and those computed from field data.

Examples

The Lotka–Volterra equations

A sample time-series of the Lotka-Volterra model. Note that the two populations exhibit cyclic behaviour, and that the predator cycle lags behind that of the prey.

One of the earliest, and most well-known, ecological models is the predator-prey model of Alfred J. Lotka (1925) and Vito Volterra (1926). This model takes the form of a pair of ordinary differential equations, one representing a prey species, the other its predator.

{\frac {dX}{dt}}=\alpha .X-\beta .X.Y

{\frac {dY}{dt}}=\gamma .\beta .X.Y-\delta .Y

where,

$X$ is the number/concentration of the prey species;
$Y$ is the number/concentration of the predator species;
$\alpha$ is the prey species' growth rate;

$\beta$ is the predation rate of $Y$ upon $X$ ;
$\gamma$ is the assimilation efficiency of $Y$ ;
$\delta$ is the mortality rate of the predator species

Volterra originally devised the model to explain fluctuations in fish and shark populations observed in the Adriatic Sea after the First World War (when fishing was curtailed). However, the equations have subsequently been applied more generally. Although simple, they illustrate some of the salient features of ecological models: modelled biological populations experience growth, interact with other populations (as either predators, prey or competitors) and suffer mortality.

A credible, simple alternative to the Lotka-Volterra predator-prey model and its common prey dependent generalizations is the ratio dependent or Arditi-Ginzburg model. The two are the extremes of the spectrum of predator interference models. According to the authors of the alternative view, the data show that true interactions in nature are so far from the Lotka-Volterra extreme on the interference spectrum that the model can simply be discounted as wrong. They are much closer to the ratio dependent extreme, so if a simple model is needed one can use the Arditi-Ginzburg model as the first approximation.

Others

The theoretical ecologist Robert Ulanowicz has used information theory tools to describe the structure of ecosystems, emphasizing mutual information (correlations) in studied systems. Drawing on this methodology and prior observations of complex ecosystems, Ulanowicz depicts approaches to determining the stress levels on ecosystems and predicting system reactions to defined types of alteration in their settings (such as increased or reduced energy flow, and eutrophication.

Conway's Game of Life and its variations model ecosystems where proximity of the members of a population are factors in population growth.

External links

Ecological modelling resources (ecobas.org)
Exposure Assessment Models United States Environmental Protection Agency
Ecotoxicology & Models (ecotoxmodels.org)

v t e Ecology: Modelling ecosystems: Trophic components
General	Abiotic component Abiotic stress Behaviour Biogeochemical cycle Biomass Biotic component Biotic stress Carrying capacity Competition Ecosystem Ecosystem ecology Ecosystem model Keystone species List of feeding behaviours Metabolic theory of ecology Productivity Resource
Producers	Autotrophs Chemosynthesis Chemotrophs Foundation species Mixotrophs Myco-heterotrophy Mycotroph Organotrophs Photoheterotrophs Photosynthesis Photosynthetic efficiency Phototrophs Primary nutritional groups Primary production
Consumers	Apex predator Bacterivore Carnivores Chemoorganotroph Foraging Generalist and specialist species Intraguild predation Herbivores Heterotroph Heterotrophic nutrition Insectivore Mesopredators Mesopredator release hypothesis Omnivores Optimal foraging theory Planktivore Predation Prey switching
Decomposers	Chemoorganoheterotrophy Decomposition Detritivores Detritus
Microorganisms	Archaea Bacteriophage Lithoautotroph Lithotrophy Marine microorganisms Microbial cooperation Microbial ecology Microbial food web Microbial intelligence Microbial loop Microbial mat Microbial metabolism Phage ecology
Food webs	Biomagnification Ecological efficiency Ecological pyramid Energy flow Food chain Trophic level
Example webs	Lakes Rivers Soil Tritrophic interactions in plant defense Marine food webs cold seeps hydrothermal vents intertidal kelp forests North Pacific Gyre San Francisco Estuary tide pool
Processes	Ascendency Bioaccumulation Cascade effect Climax community Competitive exclusion principle Consumer–resource interactions Copiotrophs Dominance Ecological network Ecological succession Energy quality Energy Systems Language f-ratio Feed conversion ratio Feeding frenzy Mesotrophic soil Nutrient cycle Oligotroph Paradox of the plankton Trophic cascade Trophic mutualism Trophic state index
Defense, counter	Animal coloration Anti-predator adaptations Camouflage Deimatic behaviour Herbivore adaptations to plant defense Mimicry Plant defense against herbivory Predator avoidance in schooling fish

v t e Ecology: Modelling ecosystems: Other components
Population ecology	Abundance Allee effect Depensation Ecological yield Effective population size Intraspecific competition Logistic function Malthusian growth model Maximum sustainable yield Overpopulation Overexploitation Population cycle Population dynamics Population modeling Population size Predator–prey (Lotka–Volterra) equations Recruitment Small population size Stability Resilience Resistance
Species	Biodiversity Density-dependent inhibition Ecological effects of biodiversity Ecological extinction Endemic species Flagship species Gradient analysis Indicator species Introduced species Invasive species Latitudinal gradients in species diversity Minimum viable population Neutral theory Occupancy–abundance relationship Population viability analysis Priority effect Rapoport's rule Relative abundance distribution Relative species abundance Species diversity Species homogeneity Species richness Species distribution Species–area curve Umbrella species
Species interaction	Antibiosis Biological interaction Commensalism Community ecology Ecological facilitation Interspecific competition Mutualism Parasitism Storage effect Symbiosis
Spatial ecology	Biogeography Cross-boundary subsidy Ecocline Ecotone Ecotype Disturbance Edge effects Foster's rule Habitat fragmentation Ideal free distribution Intermediate disturbance hypothesis Insular biogeography Land change modeling Landscape ecology Landscape epidemiology Landscape limnology Metapopulation Patch dynamics r/K selection theory Resource selection function Source–sink dynamics
Niche	Ecological niche Ecological trap Ecosystem engineer Environmental niche modelling Guild Habitat marine habitats Limiting similarity Niche apportionment models Niche construction Niche differentiation Ontogenetic niche shift
Other networks	Assembly rules Bateman's principle Bioluminescence Ecological collapse Ecological debt Ecological deficit Ecological energetics Ecological indicator Ecological threshold Ecosystem diversity Emergence Extinction debt Kleiber's law Liebig's law of the minimum Marginal value theorem Thorson's rule Xerosere
Other	Allometry Alternative stable state Balance of nature Biological data visualization Ecocline Ecological economics Ecological footprint Ecological forecasting Ecological humanities Ecological stoichiometry Ecopath Ecosystem based fisheries Endolith Evolutionary ecology Functional ecology Industrial ecology Macroecology Microecosystem Natural environment Regime shift Sexecology Systems ecology Urban ecology Theoretical ecology
List of ecology topics

Ecosystem model

Types of models

Model design

Validation

Examples

The Lotka–Volterra equations

Others

See also

Further reading

External links